The Astonishing Golden Spell Drives Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

A mere two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or a cause for the side's broader struggles.

In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six games, now sit just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.

According to Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.

His opener came from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.